Dream: No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Miami are both in. It isn't far-fetched, considering that the selection committee thinks they're two of the top four teams right now. The most plausible way for this to happen would be for undefeated Miami to lose a close game to the Tigers in the ACC championship game, but it doesn't stop there. Two additional scenarios would further legitimize this: Ohio State wins the Big Ten with two or three losses, and/or the Big 12 produces a two-loss champ in either TCU or Oklahoma. What we can assume now: The SEC champ is in. The ACC champ is in. A one-loss Oklahoma is in. An undefeated Wisconsin is in. In order to make room for a second ACC team, the Big 12 and the Big Ten need to stumble. A one-loss Miami would certainly be easier for the committee to justify over a two-loss Ohio State or two-loss Big 12 champ. According to FiveThirtyEight projections, if both Clemson and Miami win this week, the title game winner will be a virtual lock while the loser will still have at least a 1-in-4 chance.
Disaster: Clemson loses to South Carolina but wins the ACC. The committee has already forgiven Clemson's bad loss to Syracuse, which continues to look worse each week. Would it forgive a second loss to an unranked team? The Gamecocks are at least a respectable 8-3 and bowl-bound, unlike 4-7 Syracuse, but would an ACC title be enough to keep Clemson in the top four? If this happened, would the committee consider ignoring the head-to-head result and ranking Miami above Clemson? The committee uses conference championship games and head-to-head results as tiebreakers when it deems résumés and teams comparable. But in this scenario, it's easy to argue that Miami and Clemson would no longer be comparable because of the Tigers' second loss.
